The effect of reducing quantitative easing on emerging markets
Résumé
On 22 May and 19 June 2013, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a reduction in the asset purchase programme of its quantitative easing policy. This article investigates the impact of this news on the currencies of emerging markets. Using event study methodology, our results report a global significant depreciation in the currencies of all emerging markets in our sample, but with different depreciation sizes from one market to another. To test whether the depreciation in currencies is driven by capital flow components, a regression analysis is performed. Inward FDI as well as outward FDI appear to have more explanatory power than inward and outward portfolio investment in explaining the impact. With the slowdown in asset purchases by the Fed, emerging countries have incurred large capital outflows from their markets to the US market, resulting in a drop in their currencies.